Market Forecasting Analysis
The market forecasting process also follows three steps: Data Collection → Model Construction → Result Validation & Application.
Common Forecasting Methods
1. Time Series Forecasting
Time series methods are more suitable for short-term (1–3 year) market forecasting. Based on the regular patterns in historical data, this approach extrapolates near-term market trends and is best suited for products with high market maturity and extensive data accumulation.
2. Patient Population-Based Forecasting
This model is better suited for new product development forecasting and long-term market forecasting. The model considers multiple patient-related factors including:
- Disease epidemiology data
- Patient affordability and insurance coverage
- Current and potential competitive product landscape
This is extremely helpful for understanding future market development trends.
Important Note: Regardless of the modeling approach, we need to consider whether there are significant events in the current environment that may impact market development trends (such as policy changes, new drug approvals, etc.). Timely assessment of these major events and adjusting the model accordingly is key to ensuring forecast accuracy.